1
~7 months
How often the tasks agents can finish double in length
METR times software tasks by how long a human expert takes. The length frontier models finish half the time doubled roughly every seven months from 2019 to early 2025. METR's January 2026 update found it faster since 2023: about every four months.
How we got this number
Seconds for GPT-2 in 2019, about an hour for Claude 3.7 Sonnet in early 2025, about 2 h 17 min for GPT-5 in August 2025 (METR's original task suite). Extended with caution: week-long tasks around 2027 to 2029.
Source: METR, 2025
